Imanol Rodriguez vs. Alden Coria
Flyweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 3
Fighter Elo 1526Toss-Up: Alden CoriaFighter Elo 1540
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Imanol RodriguezAlden Coria
27%Decision28%
13%KO/TKO16%
8%Submission8%
55%Goes the Distance
11.1 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Alden Coria is ahead by 14 in total.
Imanol RodriguezAlden Coria
Before the UFC+74Age and Build+35Activity+10Past Results+7Grappling+33Experience+33Striking+61
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Imanol Rodriguez | Alden Coria | |
|---|---|---|
| 36.47 to 71 | Significant Strikes | 39.78 to 76 |
| 1.40 to 4 | Takedowns | 1.20 to 3 |
| 0.20 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.30 to 1 |
| 2.1 min0 to 5.9 | Control Time | 1.9 min0 to 5.4 |
| 0.40 to 1 | Submission Attempts | 0.40 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Imanol Rodriguez40%
Alden Coria45%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Imanol Rodriguez won by KO/TKO against Kevin Borjas last time out, in 2026.
- Alden Coria is unbeaten in the UFC at 3-0.
- The biggest single edge is the record before the UFC: 74 Fighter Elo points in favor of Imanol Rodriguez.
- The likeliest single ending in the forecast is Alden Coria by decision, at 28%.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.