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Welterweight · Active

Joel Alvarez

UFC Record
8-4
Age
33
Height
6'3"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox

Fighter Elo

The rating the forecasts are built on. It projects fighters.

Fighter Elo
1510Today
1664Best, May 2026
1559Classic Elo
#157 Men: Pound for Pound#30 Welterweight
140015001600170020202021202220232024202520261448 going into Damir Ismagulov, Feb 20191512 going into Danilo Belluardo, Jun 20191546 going into Joe Duffy, Jul 20201528 going into Alexander Yakovlev, Oct 20201506 going into Thiago Moises, Nov 20211580 going into Arman Tsarukyan, Feb 20221466 going into Marc Diakiese, Jul 20231519 going into Elves Brener, Aug 20241638 going into Drakkar Klose, Dec 20241631 going into Vicente Luque, Oct 20251664 going into Yaroslav Amosov, May 20261618 going into Chidi Njokuani, Aug 20261510 today1510
Fighter Elo going into each UFC fight, and today.
Classic Elo
1559Today
1598Best, May 2026
1510Fighter Elo
#142 Men: Pound for Pound#30 Welterweight

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses, so it reads more like normal rankings.

145015001550160020202021202220232024202520261500 going into Damir Ismagulov, Feb 20191485 going into Danilo Belluardo, Jun 20191501 going into Joe Duffy, Jul 20201518 going into Alexander Yakovlev, Oct 20201532 going into Thiago Moises, Nov 20211548 going into Arman Tsarukyan, Feb 20221532 going into Marc Diakiese, Jul 20231547 going into Elves Brener, Aug 20241563 going into Drakkar Klose, Dec 20241580 going into Vicente Luque, Oct 20251598 going into Yaroslav Amosov, May 20261578 going into Chidi Njokuani, Aug 20261559 today1559
Classic Elo going into each UFC fight, and after the last one.

How Fighter Elo Works

Fighter Elo is the model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500. The gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win, 200 points about 76%, and 400 points about 91%.

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses. Fighter Elo also counts how the fights went (striking and grappling numbers), age and build, and how active a fighter has been. It is worked out fresh before every fight, so it can move between fights too, for example with age or a long layoff.

Classic Elo, shown next to it, is the results-only version. It reads more like normal rankings, and the Rankings page can be switched to it.

Career Numbers

Across every UFC fight with recorded stats.

4.59Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
53%Striking Accuracy
4.13Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
48%Striking Defense
0.15Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
0.15Takedowns per 15 Minutes
33%Takedown Accuracy
48%Takedown Defense
0.90Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes
10%Share of Fight Time in Control
8.3 minAverage Fight Length
Ended ByKO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Wins431
Losses112

Fight History

Every UFC fight, newest first. Tap a fight to see what both fighters put up.

Lossvs. Chidi NjokuaniUnanimous DecisionAug 15, 2026UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Joel AlvarezChidi Njokuani
1618Fighter Elo Going In1464
1578Classic Elo Going In1502
74 of 164Significant Strikes155 of 229
76 of 166Total Strikes159 of 233
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:26Control Time0:12
Lossvs. Yaroslav AmosovSubmission · R2 1:13May 9, 2026UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Joel AlvarezYaroslav Amosov
1664Fighter Elo Going In1656
1598Classic Elo Going In1522
8 of 22Significant Strikes16 of 28
9 of 23Total Strikes22 of 34
0 of 0Takedowns6 of 11
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
0:00Control Time3:52
Winvs. Vicente LuqueUnanimous DecisionOct 11, 2025UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Joel AlvarezVicente Luque
1631Fighter Elo Going In1488
1580Classic Elo Going In1607
89 of 148Significant Strikes30 of 99
197 of 288Total Strikes31 of 101
1 of 1Takedowns0 of 2
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
6:30Control Time0:00
Winvs. Drakkar KloseKO/TKO · R1 2:48Dec 14, 2024UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Joel AlvarezDrakkar Klose
1638Fighter Elo Going In1461
1563Classic Elo Going In1603
20 of 24Significant Strikes7 of 13
39 of 44Total Strikes16 of 23
0 of 0Takedowns1 of 1
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:04Control Time1:08
Winvs. Elves BrenerKO/TKO · R3 3:36Aug 3, 2024UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Joel AlvarezElves Brener
1519Fighter Elo Going In1528
1547Classic Elo Going In1530
95 of 141Significant Strikes45 of 97
114 of 164Total Strikes45 of 98
0 of 1Takedowns0 of 5
1Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
0:51Control Time0:22
Winvs. Marc DiakieseSubmission · R2 4:26Jul 22, 2023UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Joel AlvarezMarc Diakiese
1466Fighter Elo Going In1518
1532Classic Elo Going In1507
42 of 75Significant Strikes20 of 46
64 of 98Total Strikes29 of 60
0 of 1Takedowns2 of 3
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
1:26Control Time3:09
Lossvs. Arman TsarukyanKO/TKO · R2 1:57Feb 26, 2022UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Joel AlvarezArman Tsarukyan
1580Fighter Elo Going In1741
1548Classic Elo Going In1554
7 of 10Significant Strikes36 of 53
27 of 33Total Strikes93 of 122
0 of 0Takedowns2 of 2
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time6:08
Winvs. Thiago MoisesKO/TKO · R1 3:01Nov 13, 2021UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Joel AlvarezThiago Moises
1506Fighter Elo Going In1537
1532Classic Elo Going In1527
44 of 73Significant Strikes11 of 24
44 of 73Total Strikes11 of 24
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:02Control Time0:00
Winvs. Alexander YakovlevSubmission · R1 3:00Oct 24, 2020UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Joel AlvarezAlexander Yakovlev
1528Fighter Elo Going In1475
1518Classic Elo Going In1483
4 of 6Significant Strikes1 of 1
10 of 13Total Strikes15 of 16
0 of 0Takedowns1 of 1
0Knockdowns0
2Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time1:57
Winvs. Joe DuffySubmission · R1 2:25Jul 18, 2020UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Joel AlvarezJoe Duffy
1546Fighter Elo Going In1396
1501Classic Elo Going In1516
18 of 37Significant Strikes14 of 26
18 of 37Total Strikes14 of 26
0 of 0Takedowns1 of 1
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:09
Winvs. Danilo BelluardoKO/TKO · R2 2:22Jun 1, 2019UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Joel AlvarezDanilo Belluardo
1512Fighter Elo Going In1389
1485Classic Elo Going In1500
19 of 41Significant Strikes13 of 20
87 of 113Total Strikes56 of 68
0 of 0Takedowns2 of 2
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:17Control Time4:22
Lossvs. Damir IsmagulovUnanimous DecisionFeb 23, 2019UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Joel AlvarezDamir Ismagulov
1448Fighter Elo Going In1659
1500Classic Elo Going In1516
38 of 127Significant Strikes64 of 150
38 of 127Total Strikes64 of 150
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:00