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Middleweight · Last Fought Jul 2017

Rafael Natal

UFC Record
9-7-1
Age
43
Height
6'0"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox

Fighter Elo

The rating the forecasts are built on. It projects fighters.

Fighter Elo
1533Going Into Their Last Fight, Jul 2017
1679Best, May 2013
1521Classic Elo

No fight in the last two years, so there is no rating for today.

140015001600170020112012201320142015201620171479 going into Rich Attonito, Sep 20101558 going into Jesse Bongfeldt, Dec 20101510 going into Paul Bradley, Aug 20111511 going into Michael Kuiper, Feb 20121530 going into Andrew Craig, Jul 20121577 going into Sean Spencer, Jan 20131679 going into Joao Zeferino, May 20131663 going into Tor Troeng, Sep 20131665 going into Tim Kennedy, Nov 20131630 going into Ed Herman, May 20141600 going into Chris Camozzi, Sep 20141566 going into Tom Watson, Jan 20151599 going into Uriah Hall, May 20151575 going into Kevin Casey, Jan 20161604 going into Robert Whittaker, Apr 20161576 going into Tim Boetsch, Nov 20161533 going into Eryk Anders, Jul 20171533
Fighter Elo going into each UFC fight.
Classic Elo
1521After Their Last Fight, Jul 2017
1573Best, Apr 2016
1533Fighter Elo

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses, so it reads more like normal rankings.

145015001550160020112012201320142015201620171500 going into Rich Attonito, Sep 20101485 going into Jesse Bongfeldt, Dec 20101485 going into Paul Bradley, Aug 20111502 going into Michael Kuiper, Feb 20121518 going into Andrew Craig, Jul 20121502 going into Sean Spencer, Jan 20131518 going into Joao Zeferino, May 20131533 going into Tor Troeng, Sep 20131548 going into Tim Kennedy, Nov 20131531 going into Ed Herman, May 20141515 going into Chris Camozzi, Sep 20141531 going into Tom Watson, Jan 20151545 going into Uriah Hall, May 20151560 going into Kevin Casey, Jan 20161573 going into Robert Whittaker, Apr 20161557 going into Tim Boetsch, Nov 20161539 going into Eryk Anders, Jul 20171521 after their last fight1521
Classic Elo going into each UFC fight, and after the last one.

How Fighter Elo Works

Fighter Elo is the model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500. The gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win, 200 points about 76%, and 400 points about 91%.

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses. Fighter Elo also counts how the fights went (striking and grappling numbers), age and build, and how active a fighter has been. It is worked out fresh before every fight, so it can move between fights too, for example with age or a long layoff.

Classic Elo, shown next to it, is the results-only version. It reads more like normal rankings, and the Rankings page can be switched to it.

Career Numbers

Across every UFC fight with recorded stats.

3.10Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
48%Striking Accuracy
2.48Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
58%Striking Defense
0.35Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
2.55Takedowns per 15 Minutes
34%Takedown Accuracy
77%Takedown Defense
0.50Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes
25%Share of Fight Time in Control
12.4 minAverage Fight Length
Ended ByKO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Wins117
Losses403

Fight History

Every UFC fight, newest first. Tap a fight to see what both fighters put up.

Lossvs. Eryk AndersKO/TKO · R1 2:54Jul 22, 2017UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalEryk Anders
1533Fighter Elo Going In1474
1539Classic Elo Going In1500
14 of 23Significant Strikes23 of 29
15 of 24Total Strikes23 of 29
0 of 1Takedowns1 of 2
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:46
Lossvs. Tim BoetschKO/TKO · R1 3:22Nov 12, 2016UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalTim Boetsch
1576Fighter Elo Going In1465
1557Classic Elo Going In1522
5 of 18Significant Strikes14 of 25
5 of 18Total Strikes14 of 25
0 of 1Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:04
Lossvs. Robert WhittakerUnanimous DecisionApr 23, 2016UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalRobert Whittaker
1604Fighter Elo Going In1647
1573Classic Elo Going In1567
62 of 137Significant Strikes89 of 176
63 of 138Total Strikes92 of 179
0 of 4Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:02
Winvs. Kevin CaseyKO/TKO · R3 3:37Jan 30, 2016UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalKevin Casey
1575Fighter Elo Going In1475
1560Classic Elo Going In1502
54 of 87Significant Strikes16 of 49
123 of 168Total Strikes30 of 64
4 of 7Takedowns0 of 2
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
5:31Control Time2:09
Winvs. Uriah HallSplit DecisionMay 23, 2015UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalUriah Hall
1599Fighter Elo Going In1592
1545Classic Elo Going In1520
45 of 103Significant Strikes43 of 74
63 of 125Total Strikes47 of 78
1 of 11Takedowns1 of 3
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
2:55Control Time0:52
Winvs. Tom WatsonUnanimous DecisionJan 31, 2015UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalTom Watson
1566Fighter Elo Going In1422
1531Classic Elo Going In1489
67 of 152Significant Strikes29 of 150
74 of 159Total Strikes33 of 156
8 of 13Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
3:30Control Time0:00
Winvs. Chris CamozziSplit DecisionSep 5, 2014UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalChris Camozzi
1600Fighter Elo Going In1535
1515Classic Elo Going In1505
36 of 73Significant Strikes67 of 112
46 of 84Total Strikes86 of 134
2 of 12Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
2:44Control Time2:44
Lossvs. Ed HermanUnanimous DecisionMay 10, 2014UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalEd Herman
1630Fighter Elo Going In1408
1531Classic Elo Going In1536
35 of 73Significant Strikes51 of 87
71 of 114Total Strikes78 of 117
1 of 6Takedowns1 of 4
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
4:46Control Time2:57
Lossvs. Tim KennedyKO/TKO · R1 4:40Nov 6, 2013UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Rafael NatalTim Kennedy
1665Fighter Elo Going In1520
1548Classic Elo Going In1516
13 of 35Significant Strikes13 of 31
13 of 35Total Strikes13 of 31
0 of 1Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:02
Winvs. Tor TroengUnanimous DecisionSep 4, 2013UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalTor Troeng
1663Fighter Elo Going In1442
1533Classic Elo Going In1516
39 of 62Significant Strikes9 of 17
57 of 81Total Strikes54 of 66
0 of 2Takedowns0 of 1
2Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
8:03Control Time5:03
Winvs. Joao ZeferinoUnanimous DecisionMay 18, 2013UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalJoao Zeferino
1679Fighter Elo Going In1412
1518Classic Elo Going In1500
29 of 67Significant Strikes14 of 40
112 of 162Total Strikes22 of 50
1 of 2Takedowns0 of 2
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts2
4:52Control Time0:22
Winvs. Sean SpencerSubmission · R3 2:13Jan 26, 2013UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalSean Spencer
1577Fighter Elo Going In1434
1502Classic Elo Going In1500
64 of 111Significant Strikes12 of 84
122 of 170Total Strikes14 of 86
4 of 6Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
4Submission Attempts0
5:42Control Time0:11
Lossvs. Andrew CraigKO/TKO · R2 4:52Jul 11, 2012UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalAndrew Craig
1530Fighter Elo Going In1594
1518Classic Elo Going In1517
73 of 109Significant Strikes23 of 72
79 of 115Total Strikes30 of 80
2 of 5Takedowns0 of 1
2Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
1:30Control Time0:49
Winvs. Michael KuiperUnanimous DecisionFeb 4, 2012UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalMichael Kuiper
1511Fighter Elo Going In1551
1502Classic Elo Going In1500
36 of 72Significant Strikes30 of 62
61 of 98Total Strikes68 of 100
6 of 16Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns1
2Submission Attempts0
6:24Control Time3:42
Winvs. Paul BradleyUnanimous DecisionAug 6, 2011UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalPaul Bradley
1510Fighter Elo Going In1368
1485Classic Elo Going In1500
43 of 123Significant Strikes13 of 67
55 of 135Total Strikes19 of 75
0 of 1Takedowns3 of 12
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:03Control Time2:33
Drawvs. Jesse BongfeldtMajority DecisionDec 11, 2010UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalJesse Bongfeldt
1558Fighter Elo Going In1316
1485Classic Elo Going In1500
13 of 23Significant Strikes53 of 81
45 of 63Total Strikes71 of 100
5 of 8Takedowns2 of 6
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
6:03Control Time5:15
Lossvs. Rich AttonitoUnanimous DecisionSep 15, 2010UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares

Middleweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafael NatalRich Attonito
1479Fighter Elo Going In1454
1500Classic Elo Going In1516
28 of 102Significant Strikes25 of 80
51 of 132Total Strikes46 of 103
2 of 9Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
1:36Control Time3:16