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Lightweight · Active

Alexander Hernandez

UFC Record
10-8
Age
34
Height
5'9"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Next Fight · Saturday, October 3vs. Rafael Dos AnjosUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang60%Win ChanceFull Forecast

Fighter Elo

The rating the forecasts are built on. It projects fighters.

Fighter Elo
1486Today
1725Best, Jan 2019
1546Classic Elo
#175 Men: Pound for Pound#33 Lightweight
1400150016001700180020192021202320251428 going into Beneil Dariush, Mar 20181576 going into Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Jul 20181725 going into Donald Cerrone, Jan 20191569 going into Francisco Trinaldo, Jul 20191605 going into Drew Dober, May 20201560 going into Chris Gruetzemacher, Oct 20201580 going into Thiago Moises, Feb 20211554 going into Mike Breeden, Oct 20211558 going into Renato Moicano, Feb 20221550 going into Billy Quarantillo, Dec 20221467 going into Jim Miller, Feb 20231522 going into Bill Algeo, Oct 20231490 going into Damon Jackson, Apr 20241464 going into Austin Hubbard, Oct 20241496 going into Kurt Holobaugh, Mar 20251461 going into Chase Hooper, Aug 20251458 going into Diego Ferreira, Sep 20251502 going into Rafa Garcia, Apr 20261486 today1486
Fighter Elo going into each UFC fight, and today.
Classic Elo
1546Today
1563Best, Apr 2026
1486Fighter Elo
#176 Men: Pound for Pound#32 Lightweight

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses, so it reads more like normal rankings.

145015001550160020192021202320251500 going into Beneil Dariush, Mar 20181520 going into Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Jul 20181538 going into Donald Cerrone, Jan 20191527 going into Francisco Trinaldo, Jul 20191547 going into Drew Dober, May 20201531 going into Chris Gruetzemacher, Oct 20201546 going into Thiago Moises, Feb 20211529 going into Mike Breeden, Oct 20211543 going into Renato Moicano, Feb 20221527 going into Billy Quarantillo, Dec 20221511 going into Jim Miller, Feb 20231531 going into Bill Algeo, Oct 20231514 going into Damon Jackson, Apr 20241498 going into Austin Hubbard, Oct 20241514 going into Kurt Holobaugh, Mar 20251528 going into Chase Hooper, Aug 20251546 going into Diego Ferreira, Sep 20251563 going into Rafa Garcia, Apr 20261546 today1546
Classic Elo going into each UFC fight, and after the last one.

How Fighter Elo Works

Fighter Elo is the model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500. The gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win, 200 points about 76%, and 400 points about 91%.

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses. Fighter Elo also counts how the fights went (striking and grappling numbers), age and build, and how active a fighter has been. It is worked out fresh before every fight, so it can move between fights too, for example with age or a long layoff.

Classic Elo, shown next to it, is the results-only version. It reads more like normal rankings, and the Rankings page can be switched to it.

Career Numbers

Across every UFC fight with recorded stats.

4.23Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
40%Striking Accuracy
4.46Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
60%Striking Defense
0.48Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
1.04Takedowns per 15 Minutes
35%Takedown Accuracy
69%Takedown Defense
0.08Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes
13%Share of Fight Time in Control
10.4 minAverage Fight Length
Ended ByKO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Wins505
Losses314

Fight History

Every UFC fight, newest first. Tap a fight to see what both fighters put up.

Lossvs. Rafa GarciaUnanimous DecisionApr 25, 2026UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezRafa Garcia
1502Fighter Elo Going In1629
1563Classic Elo Going In1546
50 of 145Significant Strikes59 of 169
54 of 149Total Strikes79 of 194
0 of 1Takedowns4 of 7
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time1:50
Winvs. Diego FerreiraKO/TKO · R2 3:46Sep 13, 2025Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezDiego Ferreira
1458Fighter Elo Going In1464
1546Classic Elo Going In1565
30 of 75Significant Strikes23 of 98
30 of 75Total Strikes23 of 98
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:12Control Time0:00
Winvs. Chase HooperKO/TKO · R1 4:58Aug 16, 2025UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezChase Hooper
1461Fighter Elo Going In1603
1528Classic Elo Going In1574
17 of 38Significant Strikes20 of 82
18 of 39Total Strikes20 of 82
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 2
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:02Control Time0:05
Winvs. Kurt HolobaughUnanimous DecisionMar 15, 2025UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezKurt Holobaugh
1496Fighter Elo Going In1201
1514Classic Elo Going In1464
59 of 149Significant Strikes71 of 171
87 of 186Total Strikes106 of 215
4 of 5Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
6:39Control Time0:32
Winvs. Austin HubbardSplit DecisionOct 5, 2024UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezAustin Hubbard
1464Fighter Elo Going In1419
1498Classic Elo Going In1489
79 of 204Significant Strikes63 of 191
91 of 217Total Strikes65 of 193
0 of 2Takedowns0 of 12
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:40Control Time0:05
Lossvs. Damon JacksonSplit DecisionApr 6, 2024UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezDamon Jackson
1490Fighter Elo Going In1395
1514Classic Elo Going In1520
32 of 87Significant Strikes42 of 85
56 of 119Total Strikes85 of 135
0 of 0Takedowns3 of 7
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
2:22Control Time6:18
Lossvs. Bill AlgeoUnanimous DecisionOct 7, 2023UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezBill Algeo
1522Fighter Elo Going In1476
1531Classic Elo Going In1522
75 of 156Significant Strikes110 of 244
76 of 157Total Strikes119 of 257
0 of 1Takedowns1 of 1
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:35Control Time0:07
Winvs. Jim MillerUnanimous DecisionFeb 18, 2023UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezJim Miller
1467Fighter Elo Going In1432
1511Classic Elo Going In1581
108 of 234Significant Strikes67 of 185
111 of 238Total Strikes68 of 186
0 of 1Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
0:23Control Time0:40
Lossvs. Billy QuarantilloKO/TKO · R2 4:30Dec 10, 2022UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezBilly Quarantillo
1550Fighter Elo Going In1404
1527Classic Elo Going In1529
48 of 94Significant Strikes87 of 151
59 of 105Total Strikes127 of 194
2 of 6Takedowns2 of 4
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
4:08Control Time1:20
Lossvs. Renato MoicanoSubmission · R2 1:23Feb 12, 2022UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezRenato Moicano
1558Fighter Elo Going In1557
1543Classic Elo Going In1546
37 of 79Significant Strikes33 of 60
39 of 81Total Strikes38 of 65
0 of 1Takedowns2 of 6
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
0:05Control Time1:43
Winvs. Mike BreedenKO/TKO · R1 1:20Oct 2, 2021UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezMike Breeden
1554Fighter Elo Going In1364
1529Classic Elo Going In1500
20 of 35Significant Strikes6 of 15
20 of 35Total Strikes6 of 15
0 of 2Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:01Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Thiago MoisesUnanimous DecisionFeb 27, 2021UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezThiago Moises
1580Fighter Elo Going In1537
1546Classic Elo Going In1522
50 of 205Significant Strikes53 of 183
50 of 205Total Strikes53 of 183
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:00
Winvs. Chris GruetzemacherKO/TKO · R1 1:46Oct 31, 2020UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezChris Gruetzemacher
1560Fighter Elo Going In1366
1531Classic Elo Going In1503
29 of 52Significant Strikes8 of 27
29 of 52Total Strikes8 of 27
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Drew DoberKO/TKO · R2 4:25May 13, 2020UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezDrew Dober
1605Fighter Elo Going In1493
1547Classic Elo Going In1552
34 of 108Significant Strikes61 of 145
41 of 115Total Strikes65 of 149
3 of 5Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
1:07Control Time0:11
Winvs. Francisco TrinaldoUnanimous DecisionJul 20, 2019UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezFrancisco Trinaldo
1569Fighter Elo Going In1500
1527Classic Elo Going In1611
25 of 91Significant Strikes25 of 52
26 of 92Total Strikes28 of 55
0 of 1Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:20Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Donald CerroneKO/TKO · R2 3:43Jan 19, 2019UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezDonald Cerrone
1725Fighter Elo Going In1558
1538Classic Elo Going In1640
49 of 105Significant Strikes80 of 162
54 of 110Total Strikes81 of 163
0 of 2Takedowns1 of 1
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:22Control Time0:29
Winvs. Olivier Aubin-MercierUnanimous DecisionJul 28, 2018UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezOlivier Aubin-Mercier
1576Fighter Elo Going In1623
1520Classic Elo Going In1576
39 of 81Significant Strikes19 of 32
86 of 137Total Strikes37 of 50
4 of 10Takedowns2 of 6
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
7:11Control Time3:52
Winvs. Beneil DariushKO/TKO · R1 0:42Mar 3, 2018UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Alexander HernandezBeneil Dariush
1428Fighter Elo Going In1690
1500Classic Elo Going In1583
8 of 13Significant Strikes4 of 11
9 of 14Total Strikes4 of 11
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:01Control Time0:00